Thursday, May 7, 2026

Went 3-2 Wednesday. The unders did the work — SF held San Diego to 6 runs, and Texas beat New York 7-1 to cash the NYY under easily. Washington put up 15 runs against Minnesota to cover the over. Miami and Chicago both won their games but neither covered the run line. Season record: 117-104-5P.

No standard plays today. Three Higher Model Confidence signals only.

PASS — standard edge threshold not cleared today. The model evaluated the full slate and nothing cleared 7%. This is the model working correctly.

Higher Model Confidence

10%+ edge signals — email only

MLB · CLE @ KC · Total

Under 9.5

Slade Cecconi against Seth Lugo — two average-to-below starters with nearly identical ERAs and WHIPs, and both with xERAs pointing higher than the surface numbers suggest. Neither team is scoring at league average: Cleveland is at 4.05 runs per game, Kansas City at 4.11, both below the 4.46 league average. Both lineups are shorthanded today — Cleveland at 97.2% strength without Hoskins, Martinez, and Fry; Kansas City at 97.4% without Marte and Loftin.

The bigger factor is the bullpen situation. Kansas City's relief corps comes in taxed — Lange, Avila, and Schreiber all logged significant work in the last 48 hours. Cleveland's pen is better by quality score (44.7 vs. 56.4) and has only one tired arm. Then there's the weather: 65°F with a 16 mph wind blowing in at Kauffman. The model's weather factor is 0.954 — that's a meaningful suppressor. 50,000 simulations produce an 8.4 average total and a 65% probability for the under. The market is pricing this at roughly 47%. That 18-point gap is what's driving the signal.

MLB · NYM @ COL · Total

Under 10.5

The market sees Coors Field and sets a high number. The model sees something different. Yes, park factor is 115 — but Colorado is missing four lineup regulars today: Goodman, Beck, Tovar, and Doyle. That drops them to 92% of full offensive strength, which is a real hit to a lineup that was already below average. On the Mets side, Christian Scott is making only his second start of the season and comes in with a 7.11 BB/9 in limited action — shaky command at a high-altitude park is not an ideal combination. Jose Quintana's ERA looks respectable at 3.98, but his xERA sits at 5.20, meaning the underlying numbers point to regression.

Both bullpens are equally taxed with one tired arm each. Neither offense is running hot — New York scores just 3.67 runs per game, well below league average. The simulation projects 8.8 combined runs on average, with the under hitting 70.3% of the time. The market is implying roughly 47% probability. That's the biggest edge gap of the three plays today.

MLB · NYM @ COL · Run Line

Rockies +1.5

This comes out of the same game as the under, and the two plays are connected. The model has New York and Colorado as nearly even on the moneyline — NYM at +104 fair value, Colorado at -104 — but the market has the Mets installed as -154 favorites. That disconnect is what's generating the run line value. Colorado at +1.5 hits in 67% of simulations; the market is pricing that outcome at around 55%.

The Mets offense is the least productive in the game today: 3.67 runs per game, a below-average .645 OPS, and a starter with command issues. Colorado loses the plate protection of four regulars, but at home with the park factor working in their favor, the model doesn't see a team that gets blown out. In a close, low-scoring game — which the under also signals — Colorado covering +1.5 is the natural complement.

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