CWS @ LAA — May 4

Over 7.5

Edge: 9.6%  •  -110

The White Sox have been a run-environment booster on the road lately, and the Angels have let up crooked numbers at home. The model's projection puts this game comfortably over 7.5 — enough margin that it cleared the threshold clean.

SD @ SF — May 4

San Francisco Giants +1.5

Edge: 7.9%  •  -146

San Francisco at home as a moderate underdog. The model has the Giants' true win probability meaningfully higher than what the line implies. The Padres aren't getting the discount they should need to be -1.5 favorites on the road. We take the cushion and let SF play their game.

Braves ML (+150). The biggest signal on today's board. Atlanta's being priced like a road pushover — the model isn't buying it. At plus money with that kind of edge, this is the most interesting number on the slate.

Same game as our official play. Two strong signals pointing toward a tight, low-scoring game in San Francisco — the run line and the under are telling the same story.

Cubs -1.5 at -108. That's a run line on a favorite at near-even money with an 18.9% edge — that number doesn't come around often. The model sees the Cubs' pitching matchup today as a clear advantage.

Marlins ML (+100) and +1.5 both showing up well above threshold. Miami is getting underestimated at home. The model has this one as much closer than the market is pricing.